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blue bits. red rocks.
Tuesday 23 September 2008

The battlegrounds change on a daily basis. Obama has to win Michigan and Pennsylvania. There are scenarios where he could lose one of them, but it would make things tough. Obama’s easiest path to victory is to hold the Kerry states and win Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. That would give him 273 electoral votes. Right now he’s ahead in Iowa and New Mexico by seven or eight points, but Colorado is closer. The only Kerry states where McCain has a chance are Michigan and Pennsylvania, and maybe New Hampshire, but I’m not sure those four electoral votes will matter. McCain thought he might win in Wisconsin or Minnesota, but that doesn’t look likely now. And McCain has to hold on to Ohio, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and even Indiana and North Carolina could be close. So a lot of strange things could happen but Obama only has two “must-win” states while McCain has half a dozen. Nate Silver

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