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blue bits. red rocks.
Friday 28 March 2008

Open source counter-insurgency can work indefinitely if the host government remains passive (although at the cost of a badly functioning hollow state and lots of money). However, if the host government calls the bluff (the gap between “policy” and “practice”) and begins to roll back the autonomy awarded to competitive non-state groups, the entire effort will shatter. Maliki is doing this now with his excursion into Basra. As a result, US policy in Iraq is now being gored by the horns of a dilemma. The US appears to be unable to decide which bad option to select: support Maliki and the country collapses into an orgy of violence - or - let him fail and the Iraqi government loses its remaining legitimacy and cohesion. Gored by the Horns of a Dilemma

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